The UEFA Champions League returns for its second week, promising a series of captivating matches. A highlight is undoubtedly the encounter between Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys. This fixture, once anticipated as a potential 2025 final, now sees two injury-plagued teams battling for a spot in the top eight of the league phase.
Elsewhere, the return of Jose Mourinho to Chelsea, leading his Benfica squad, is highly anticipated, with his team aiming to challenge Enzo Maresca amidst growing discontent among the Stamford Bridge supporters. The week also features potential upsets, such as Real Madrid`s trip to Kazakhstan to face Kairat Almaty, and Pafos hosting their inaugural Champions League home game against formidable Bayern Munich. These key matchups form the basis of our four burning questions for this week:
1. Will PSG and Barcelona deliver a clash worthy of a final despite injuries?
Tuesday brings the game many expected to witness in a final on May 31. Last season, Inter`s narrow victory in the semifinals offered all the thrills and drama the final lacked, but Yann Sommer`s stubborn defense meant we didn`t get to see Europe`s two finest attacks go head-to-head in a Barcelona vs. Paris Saint-Germain matchup. This time, the stakes are considerably lower – either team can likely afford a loss and still finish in the top eight of the league phase – and the available talent might not be at its peak.
The standout performer from last season`s Champions League is absent, with Raphinha sidelined for at least two weeks. Additionally, crucial players from PSG`s winning run are either doubtful or confirmed absentees. Ballon d`Or recipient Ousmane Dembele has long been a major doubt, and in Saturday`s 2-0 win over Auxerre, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia also joined the injury list with what appeared to be a thigh muscle issue. Vitinha soon followed. This is merely the tip of a particularly unfortunate iceberg; any neutral fan would surely love to see the likes of Joao Neves, Joan Garcia, Gavi, Desire Doue, Marquinhos, and Alejandro Balde gracing the Olympic Stadium.
Does this mean the spectacle is over? Not quite. For starters, there should still be plenty of stars shining brightly, none more so than Lamine Yamal, who took only a minute to mark his return from injury in brilliant fashion. The slightest hint that he might cut onto his left foot was enough for Real Sociedad to afford him all the space he needed down the right to deliver a cross for Robert Lewandowski to head home the winner. The prospect of his duel with Nuno Mendes on the flanks guarantees an exciting spectacle. So does the chance that Pedri and Frenkie De Jong might be afforded to flex their `best midfield in the world` credentials in the absence of so many PSG stars.
Yes, some of the talent might be missing, but the underlying systems and styles still promise an intriguing matchup regardless of the personnel. How will Barcelona`s aggressive pressing strategy, pushing everyone into the opposition half and chasing them into submission, hold up against a team as adept at playing through the lines as PSG? The holders, at their best, are defined by the fluidity with which they position themselves; can that be maintained in a heavily changed team? Luis Enrique was at great pains to praise the selfless approach of his players last season; might we see an even more organized and united group now that it is shorn of its biggest stars?
Without those big names on both sides, this might not be the game it could have been: Dembele`s harassing energy, the sheer ingenuity of Raphinha and Kvaratskhelia. And yet, if last season taught us anything, it`s that you rarely get the games you want in football. That doesn`t mean that what you get instead isn`t very special.
2. Is Arsenal`s left-sided central midfielder adopting a more cautious role?
When Arsenal secured the signing of Martin Zubimendi earlier this year, outmaneuvering rivals like Liverpool and Manchester City in a significant transfer battle, it seemed their midfield setup was established for the next half-decade. The Spaniard represented an upgrade in the sole defensive midfielder role, and Declan Rice, who appeared destined for that spot upon his 2023 arrival from West Ham, was expected to continue his commendable performance as Arsenal`s left-sided central midfielder. This implied a somewhat lower-touch role characterized by late runs into the penalty area, powerful off-the-ball movement, and impressive ball recoveries high up the pitch.
Then came the first hints of a potential shift during preseason, where Mikel Arteta lined his team up in a dual defensive midfield pivot featuring Rice and Zubimendi. Surely, this was just an experiment to explore what his Arsenal team could do beyond their primary formation, right? Perhaps, perhaps not. What appears to be the case through the first six games of the Premier League season is that the Gunners’ left-sided central midfielder is sitting a little deeper, involving himself in the final third less frequently.
Rice has started five of those games – Mikel Merino was rewarded for his form in a Spain shirt against Nottingham Forest – and has seen the proportion of his touches in the attacking third decline from 37% to 28%. His shots per 90 minutes have almost halved; indeed, he has not had a shot from open play in the Premier League since the opening weekend. His touches in Zone 14, that prime area just outside the box, have plummeted.
To which the answer might be obvious: Have you seen Arsenal`s fixture list? Away at Liverpool, away at Newcastle United, away at a rarely competent Manchester United, and at home to Manchester City. These are the types of games where, whether planned or not, Rice might simply have to sit deep.
It`s not as if the other games have offered much in the way of definitive data points. Against both Leeds and Nottingham Forest, Arsenal lost Martin Odegaard to first-half shoulder injuries. Given that Ethan Nwaneri is inclined to take more risks with possession, did Rice and Merino position themselves a little more cautiously to provide cover? It`s not as if Rice advancing from midfield is prohibited; he did so with great efficacy at St. James` Park on Sunday, and even in this deeper role, he has performed better than many give him credit for. If this is the way forward, it may not be a bad thing for Arsenal, but for now, it`s not yet clear whether it`s anything more than a reaction to Arsenal`s demanding schedule.
The suspicion remains that it`s the latter. Perhaps that will become clearer against Olympiacos when Arteta should be able to name his first-choice midfield given Odegaard`s return to training on Friday.
3. Can Chelsea overcome Jose Mourinho`s defensive strategy?
This question relies on two rather significant assumptions: first, that Benfica will arrive intending to frustrate Chelsea with a defensive game plan, and second, that they are capable of executing such an approach. The first is difficult to gauge. Mourinho took over as Benfica manager just on September 18, and, as is often the case with Portugal`s top clubs, how they approach games against Gil Vicente and Rio Ave only offers a hint of how they might look to deal with Chelsea. As for whether they can defend well enough to prey on the nerves of their hosts, one might doubt it after seeing them in action against Qarabag. However, since then, Mourinho has been in the dugout, and that man can certainly coach defensive shape.
Let us assume that Benfica can uphold their end of the bargain, that the Special One gets to transport us back 20 years to when his every pronouncement reshaped football`s vocabulary. Their opposition has “parked the bus.” Can Chelsea move it? Maresca recognizes the challenge, stating, “I think from Benfica you can expect the way they are playing now, 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, but you can also expect that they can play a back five. So I expect two or three different things, and we have a plan for these two or three things that I expect.”
Despite all the flaws apparent at Chelsea in their recent struggles – a win against Lincoln, one draw, and three defeats in their last five matches – Maresca`s side has generally seemed capable of controlling a game when level or behind with 11 players, at least unless they are facing Bayern Munich. Their more cautious approach in building attacks might frustrate supporters, but it ensures they don`t leave the back door open for a counter-attack, which might be Benfica`s best chance of snatching a goal. Since the start of last season, they rank a comfortable third in the Premier League for non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) when tied. The problems with their caution were apparent when they took the lead against Brighton on Saturday and seemed to stop playing even before Trevoh Chalobah`s red card. Again, this is reflected in the analytics: Chelsea are seventh for npxGD when leading, with Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal in the top three. Other teams go for the throat; too often, Maresca`s side does not look to land the killer blow.
If cunning is required to break down the Benfica backline, then Cole Palmer`s absence will surely be felt. However, if Maresca trusts Enzo Fernandez in the attacking midfield role, he can at least expect some of the goal threat he`d get from his No. 10. Opta`s sample size of Fernandez playing in a more advanced role is not huge, but since the start of last season, they have him averaging 0.54 npxG and 0.1 expected assists when freed from the double pivot. Against Brighton this weekend and Aston Villa in February, he showed a Lampard-esque ability to find crucial spaces in the penalty area to finish at close range – the kind of qualities that will be vital if Benfica tries to pack their box, particularly with Joao Pedro a doubt. Chelsea`s success will also require wingers who can stretch the play wide to the bylines to create space for Fernandez and others. Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto are capable of doing so; Estevao Willian is proving he can on a regular basis.
“He`s doing very good, he`s doing very well,” said Maresca of Estevao. “It`s not easy. We said already for a 17, 18-year-old player to arrive here in Europe with a big club like Chelsea and show immediately the quality that he has. We are very happy with him. He`s a very good boy. It`s what we need also in terms of energy.”
Chelsea should, therefore, have all the ingredients they need to carve their way through Benfica. If doing so sees Maresca quieten some of the adulation that Stamford Bridge will surely direct at Mourinho, well, that is all the sweeter.
4. Why is there a strong feeling that Pafos might upset Bayern Munich?
Look, this is really a `me` problem, not yours. You`re probably quite convinced that Bayern Munich, who have netted 28 goals in their initial seven matches of the season, are going to teach Champions League debutants Pafos some cruel but necessary lessons about life in the big leagues. You are almost certainly correct.
And yet, I can`t shake the sense that the one mega-upset we get every season in the Champions League is coming. In my pre-tournament predictions, I backed Pafos for a win. In this week`s picks, I held firm. Bayern, I maintain, are a very good team. They might even win the Champions League, and it wouldn`t be a huge shock. Still, there is something that I, a man paid to explain soccer, can`t quite put my finger on.
Maybe it`s the fact that the player pool at Pafos doesn`t look half bad at all. There`s certainly some resilience from a team that kept Olympiacos scoreless when playing over an hour down a man in their league phase opener, with the Greek champions limited to just 1.52 xG despite their numerical advantage (it`s equally impressive that in those first 25 minutes, Pafos held them to just one shot).
More than that, though, there`s something about Bayern that makes you think they could be upset here. Maybe it`s the fact that they`re no longer the model of efficiency on (and particularly off) the pitch that they were when Germany was world football`s poster child 15 years ago. Even if a fair few of their center-backs have improved under Vincent Kompany, they feel like they have a vulnerability in them. Whatever the reason, they just don`t *feel* like the best Bayerns, the teams who might not win it all but who would very rarely make things more difficult for themselves.
This might look incredibly foolish come Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET. It might even look incredibly foolish by 3:10 p.m. Know this, however: I maintain a strong intuition about this fixture.
