Despite ongoing issues like the Grimsby disaster, Erling Haaland`s dominant runs, and transfer market controversies, a quieter narrative persisted: data suggested Manchester United was actually improving under Ruben Amorim`s leadership.
This wasn`t an illusion or a statistical anomaly. From early April, United ranked fifth in the Premier League for expected goal difference. Even excluding penalties, like the one Bruno Fernandes meekly missed today, their performance metrics surpassed those inherited from Erik ten Hag, placing them seventh in the league – a respectable position for a 15-game period. After a challenging winter, the team showed signs of cohesion in spring, leading Amorim to express optimism about future success.
Indeed, his squad achieved the highest expected goals (xG) tally across the league in their initial five fixtures, a significant feat considering they faced strong opponents such as Chelsea, Manchester City, and Arsenal. These formidable fixtures likely contributed to their defensive record of eight goals conceded and 7.29 xG against over the same period. Overall, the statistics indicated an upward trend for United, suggesting Amorim`s first eleven months yielded reasonable progress.
However, let`s set aside the statistics for a moment. Does the team feel like it`s improving? Did their dismal 3-1 defeat at Brentford truly differ from the lows experienced under Ten Hag, Ralf Rangnick, or David Moyes, beyond just positional changes without the ball? This performance echoed a familiar “crisis” game, a type that has become distressingly common for United every other week.
The post-match press conference brought back memories of that infamous David Moyes quote. When asked what was needed for United to achieve the consistency that has eluded a manager yet to secure consecutive Premier League victories (and certainly not five in a row), Amorim simply replied, “Work on everything.”
Amorim voiced his frustration: “We practiced defending against every Brentford goal throughout the week. We need to improve our ball control and possession. We must learn to manage the game when decisions or momentum go against us. This team can settle the game, I know that. But when everything – moments, penalties, fouls – conspires against us, we need greater character to control, calm, and ultimately play better.”
Ruben Amorim highlighted the need for Manchester United to enhance their defense, offense, and composure. It begs the question: does it feel like the past twelve years have been an endless loop? More than a decade of fundamental issues left unresolved, temporary fixes in recruitment, and players who perform well in training but falter under match pressure.
After a week focused on preparing for Brentford`s threat from long balls and set pieces, the outcome was disastrous: disarray during set pieces and three goals conceded, all originating from Brentford`s long passes launched unopposed into the vulnerable spaces behind defenders like Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, and Matthijs De Ligt. While Maguire`s mishandling of the offside trap could be an easy target for United`s first conceded goal, the club`s issues, as always, run far deeper than individual errors. Jordan Henderson gained possession just outside Brentford`s box, and without any effective counter-pressing, the veteran midfielder spotted Igor Thiago`s run and delivered a precise 70-yard pass.
Post-match, Keith Andrews revealed no classified information by stating Brentford anticipated open spaces if they used a three-man midfield to overload Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte. He pointed out that United`s wide attackers could have moved centrally to create a four-man midfield and balance the numbers. Unsurprisingly, Brentford didn`t expect Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo to adopt such a tactical adjustment.
Offensively, it`s hard to believe this team has boosted its non-penalty expected goals (xG) by approximately 20% per game, despite significant investment in Benjamin Sesko, Mbeumo, and Cunha. Even if Fernandes had converted his penalty, it would have merely masked the performance`s underlying flaws. Amorim felt Nathan Collins deserved a red card for pulling Mbeumo back, stating, “The referee told me that Bryan was not in control of the ball, I think he was not in control of the ball because he was pulled.” Yet, he admitted the outcome fairly reflected playing “Brentford`s game.” That missed penalty represented one of only four opportunities United created in the second half, a period when they desperately needed goals.
Sesko finally scored in his seventh appearance, but his three attempts at a loose ball before it eventually went in were his only notable contributions. Mbeumo, cutting in from the left, delivered some decent crosses, though one could forgive him for longing for the days when such deliveries found Yoanne Wissa or Ivan Toney. He would undoubtedly have linked up effectively with Igor Thiago as well.
Conversely, Cunha appears to have carried over all the negative tendencies from Wolverhampton. At Wolves, his “hero ball” approach was understandable, as he was often the sole goal threat. Today, however, he seemed oblivious to the option of shooting from inside the penalty area. United already possesses a highly skilled attacker who needs to refine his shot selection, and Cunha was positioned deep in midfield, allowing Mikkel Damsgaard to bypass him easily. Half of United`s attacking moves involving Cunha concluded with the ball at his feet. While this isn`t unusual for an attacker, four of those instances resulted in shots totaling a mere 0.11 xG. It`s no surprise Fernandes was furious when his team mate failed to release him for a rare first-half opportunity.
Sometimes, data accurately conveys the narrative, such as Cunha`s tendency to take speculative shots, hindering United`s infrequent incursions into Brentford`s final third. At other times, data needs careful interpretation. One might glance at the raw xG figures post-match – United`s 2.11 versus Brentford`s 1.99 – and conclude that United at least fought hard. This would be a misinterpretation. Sesko`s numerous attempts at a close-range shot artificially inflated United`s xG by nearly a full point, coupled with a seemingly unearned penalty.
This principle likely applies to the cumulative statistics as well. Regardless of what the underlying data suggests, it will require extremely compelling arguments to convince anyone that it more accurately represents Manchester United`s current state than the disappointing performance witnessed today.
