Unai Emery finds himself once again in his preferred footballing environment. Following a frustrating 1-1 draw against Sunderland on Sunday, where Aston Villa managed their inaugural league goal of the season, the manager is looking to the Europa League for the boost it has consistently offered him throughout his career.
Emery`s remarkable record in the competition, featuring four trophies (three with Sevilla and the 2021 title with Villarreal), establishes him as the most decorated manager in the history of both the Europa League and its precursor, the UEFA Cup. Even when not lifting the trophy, Emery`s teams consistently reach advanced stages, as seen with Arsenal (finalist in 2019) and Atlético Madrid (quarter and semi-finals). This tournament invariably invigorates the 53-year-old coach and his squad, a much-needed morale injection at this juncture.
Currently, Aston Villa seems to be on precarious footing. While any decline wouldn`t be as severe as past struggles – considering the club was fighting relegation upon Emery`s arrival and faced an uncertain future less than ten years ago – it`s certainly not the trajectory envisioned. A club aspiring for regular Champions League encounters, like their match against Bologna last season, likely didn`t anticipate meeting the same opponent in a less prestigious setting a year on.
Aston Villa`s inability to secure a return to the Champions League is proving costly. The club made significant financial commitments in January, aiming for a top-five finish, including loan deals for Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, and a nearly $30 million signing of Donyell Malen – despite Malen`s ineligibility for their European squad. Though the transfer of academy product Jacob Ramsey to Newcastle provided some summer funds, the market for experienced players has dwindled. Consequently, Villa now possesses the league`s second-oldest squad, only behind Fulham. The difficulties faced by Emiliano Martinez in securing his desired transfer to Manchester United highlight this trend: top clubs are hesitant to invest heavily in players with only a few peak years remaining.
In Birmingham, considerable discontent exists regarding the impact of Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR), with Ezri Konsa stating these rules have “really killed” Villa. However, attributing the club`s current predicament solely to regulations predating their substantial spending overlooks that a significant portion of recruitment over the past three years hasn`t effectively enhanced the squad Emery inherited and markedly improved. Only two of the ten players who have started at least three Premier League matches this season, Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans, were brought in under Emery`s tenure. Many transfers appear to be PSR-driven maneuvers, often resulting in young players being acquired who then spend years on loan without ever truly integrating into the first team.
Achieving desired success in the transfer market is challenging when rival clubs boast greater financial flexibility and previous management has constrained options. If anyone was expected to deliver transfer market miracles, it was Monchi, whose effective partnership with Emery yielded great success at Sevilla. Yet, he struggled to unearth the next Dani Alves or Ivan Rakitic at Villa Park and has since returned to Spain for personal reasons. His successor, Roberto Olabe, another highly regarded Spanish talent scout and former Real Sociedad director of football, presents an interesting prospect. It remains to be seen if he can successfully explore untapped markets, such as Ecuador, where his previous role at Independiente del Valle was instrumental in developing talents like Piero Hincapie and Pervis Estupinan.
The exit of a crucial associate raises questions for Emery, who has visibly struggled with his team`s start to the season: four draws and two defeats. While Matty Cash`s goal against Sunderland on Sunday finally put Villa on the scoresheet, making them the last club across England`s top four divisions to do so, Emery publicly criticized his “lazy” players for conceding against a ten-man Sunderland side that appeared more likely to snatch a winner. Despite this, there`s no immediate indication that fan or employer frustration is directed back at Emery. Over three seasons, he has guided the team from the brink of relegation to successive European campaigns. Ultimately, it`s financial growth rather than just tactical acumen that will cement Villa`s status as a Premier League powerhouse.
Nevertheless, this sluggish start to the season does cast some doubt on Aston Villa`s prospects. While Emery has undeniably solidified Villa as a top-eight side, questions arise whether their 2023-24 fourth-place finish was more a result of inconsistent performances from teams like Chelsea and Newcastle than an accurate reflection of Villa`s own strengths. The team`s non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) over Emery`s two full seasons stands at 6.39, a respectable figure but more comparable to Brighton or Crystal Palace than the attacking prowess of last season`s top five.
A more profound concern is whether the Premier League`s tactical evolution is shifting away from a style that complements Emery`s philosophy. The league increasingly emphasizes athleticism, dynamic wing play, and swift counter-attacks. While Villa possesses players capable of adapting to this, especially if Morgan Rogers can replicate his national team form, it doesn`t entirely align with a coach known for his teams` cautious approach to wide areas. With only five league games played, an npxGD of -3.87 – a metric only Burnley performs worse on – prompts consideration: could this indicate Emery`s struggles to adapt to the league`s evolving tactical landscape?
The Europa League might just offer redemption. As an English side, Villa inherently possesses a physical, quick, and technically superior edge over most potential opponents. Bookmakers have already positioned them as clear favorites to win the tournament. Those familiar with Emery`s full season at Arsenal will recall his willingness to prioritize European silverware over league performance. Given that this Premier League season isn`t currently signaling a top-five challenge for Villa, Emery might soon determine that the Europa League offers the most viable path to Champions League qualification.
Should Emery secure another Europa League title, his legacy as one of Aston Villa`s most significant modern managers will be cemented. He would have elevated the club to a position of strength and happiness unmatched in recent history, building on three generally outstanding years. However, if their domestic struggles extend into their European campaign, Villa`s journey to Istanbul could become an arduous challenge.
