The 2024-25 Ballon d`Or has concluded, with its controversial outcome and dramatic ceremony still fresh in memory. Osmane Dembele of Paris Saint-Germain secured the award after a phenomenal season, spearheading his team to a historic treble, including the Champions League, and finishing as runners-up in the inaugural FIFA Club World Cup.
However, the race for the next Ballon d`Or has already begun. With the 2026 World Cup on the horizon, the initial weeks of the season offer a small, yet significant, sample of performances. As seen with Mohamed Salah`s previous campaign, the critical narrative for individual accolades often solidifies in the spring, overshadowing early season achievements.
These power rankings aim not to predict the exact winner of the 2026 Ballon d`Or panel vote, but rather to highlight who, based on early performance, deserves to win. Assessing this is challenging with limited data; even top performers have barely accumulated 500 minutes of play. While this isn`t extensive, it offers initial insights. By incorporating predictive metrics like expected goals and assists, we can begin to formulate an initial list of potential top players for the season ahead.
1. Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappe has commenced the season with an explosive pace unmatched by most in football. Prior to last weekend, he ranked second across Europe`s top five leagues and the Champions League in average shots per 90 minutes (6.86), only behind Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca, but with superior shot selection. Furthermore, Mbappe also held the second-highest average for chances created per 90 minutes. Following Real Madrid`s 2-0 victory over Espanyol, his non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists (npxG+xA) stood at an impressive 0.96 per 90. While penalties bolster his current tally of seven goals, his overall play suggests a consistent scoring threat from open play throughout the season. Xabi Alonso`s tactical setup at Real Madrid appears perfectly crafted to leverage Mbappe`s strengths, hinting at a truly exceptional campaign.
2. Erling Haaland, Manchester City
The burgeoning rivalry between Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe is shaping up to be the next generation`s Messi vs. Ronaldo. If Mbappe doesn`t clinch the award, Haaland currently stands as his primary contender. Similar to Alonso`s adjustments for Mbappe, Pep Guardiola has meticulously designed Manchester City`s game plan to maximize Haaland`s effectiveness, making almost every shot count. Before their match against Napoli, he boasted an astonishing 1.52 npxG per 90, despite underperforming this metric. With five goals in four games, including an impressive performance against Arsenal, his scoring form remains undeniable.
The only potential concern for Haaland`s Ballon d`Or prospects revolves around team achievements. While individual prizes should recognize the best player regardless of team success, significant output ideally contributes to winning. There`s a risk his goals might merely mask Manchester City`s broader weaknesses. Additionally, Norway`s limited World Cup impact could hinder his narrative. Nevertheless, Haaland is currently exceeding all expectations.
3. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich
Harry Kane completes a clear top tier of three contenders, potentially deserving an even higher spot. He leads Europe`s top five leagues with eight goals, three from penalties, and has also provided three assists. At 32, Kane appears as effective as ever in the final third, consistently delivering in crucial Champions League matches. His candidacy, however, seems closely tied to his team`s performance. Winning the Champions League would significantly boost his chances, but the ideal scenario for the veteran striker involves maintaining fitness through the summer and making a substantial impact for England in the latter stages of the World Cup. A World Cup victory could solidify his claim for the most prestigious individual awards.
4. Ousmane Dembele, Paris Saint-Germain
Ousmane Dembele, last season`s standout player for the treble-winning team, had a promising start to the 2025-26 campaign before familiar injury woes sidelined him. The France international is expected to be out until October due to a hamstring issue. This serves as a stark reminder that despite his brilliant form at the start of the year, which benefited from system changes and an improved squad, sustained availability is crucial for showcasing his true potential. The recurrence of eight hamstring problems since early 2019 raises significant questions about Dembele`s long-term candidacy. Yet, his performance during Paris Saint-Germain`s Champions League triumph clearly demonstrated his capacity to be the world`s best player.
5. Pedri, Barcelona
Pedri`s current standing as the game`s premier central midfielder was evident in Barcelona`s Champions League victory over Newcastle. Known for his possession play in earlier years, he now dominates against physically imposing Premier League midfields, winning more duels than any other player on the pitch. In fact, no player across Europe`s top five leagues has recovered possession more times than Pedri. While goal-scoring remains paramount in football, a player of Pedri`s exceptional quality should realistically be a contender for the Ballon d`Or this season, despite his lower goal output.
6. Lamine Yamal, Barcelona
If Lamine Yamal`s career trajectory continues as it has, he is poised to win the Ballon d`Or in the near future. In his second full season with Barcelona, the 18-year-old has been captivating, influencing major games with flashes of brilliance. Before his recent injuries, he showed excellent progression with two assists and two goals in three matches.
A caveat, however: while he averages nearly seven shots per 90 minutes—close to Mbappe`s rate—a significant number of these are low-percentage efforts. An average of 0.08 xG per shot indicates a need for more selective shooting. While Yamal possesses the rare ability to convert difficult chances, improving his shot selection by waiting for prime opportunities would undoubtedly bolster his case for individual glory.
7. Raphinha, Barcelona
This season presents a distinct possibility that Barcelona`s two prolific wingers, Raphinha and Yamal, might inadvertently split votes, potentially hindering their individual Ballon d`Or campaigns, similar to how Raphinha, despite matching Cristiano Ronaldo`s goal involvement record in a Champions League season, fell short previously. However, based on his current form, Raphinha could very well emerge as a worthy winner. The Brazilian has recorded three assists and two goals in five La Liga appearances and demonstrated his versatility in Thursday`s win over Newcastle, proving equally effective from both the right and left flanks.
8. Michael Olise, Bayern Munich
Is Michael Olise truly making `the leap`? Perhaps the better question is whether he already did last season, contributing 27 goals and assists in the Bundesliga. He has seamlessly continued this form, tormenting Marc Cucurella in the Champions League and delivering a flurry of goals domestically, where his npxG+xA stands at an incredible 1.1 per 90. For Olise, and indeed other Bayern Munich and PSG players on this list, this impressive output needs to translate into consistent performances in European competitions or at the World Cup to solidify his claim. Given Didier Deschamps` trust in deploying Olise in a central attacking role for France, this possibility is highly plausible.
9. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Paris Saint-Germain
The choice of Paris Saint-Germain players for this list is abundant; Vitinha, a midfield maestro, or the rapidly developing Desire Doue are strong contenders. However, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia stands out as the most obvious choice, having consistently proven his significant contributions to winning teams last season. He would likely need to step up and lead the attack in Dembele`s absence, a role he is well-suited for, given his past performances with Napoli. Despite limited minutes in Ligue 1 and perhaps a slower start this season, his inclusion here is a testament to his guaranteed brilliance. We simply cannot exclude `Kvaradona` from these power rankings.
10. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool
As this column`s choice for men`s football`s best player last season, Mohamed Salah retains his spot in the top 10 for now. He has earned the right to gradually build into a demanding campaign that includes the Africa Cup of Nations and, most likely, a World Cup, alongside his Liverpool commitments. However, it would be disingenuous to ignore subtle signs of a dip from the 33-year-old, who eased off in 2024-25 once further trophies became unattainable. Salah`s npxG has dropped from 0.49 to 0.09 per 90 in the Premier League, and his xA from 0.24 to 0.14. Not all of this can be attributed to an improved supporting cast. With over 500 games in top leagues and European competitions, and a lucrative new contract, the potential for a decline is a known factor for players of his profile. While it’s always better to be cautious when labeling a decline for a talent like Salah, these metrics do suggest the initial indicators of such a trend.
